ORFA’s six-year study on Nigeria violence finds Christians disproportionately affected, with Fulani terror groups linked to most civilian killings.
Newsroom (02/07/2026 Gaudium Press ) A newly released six-year study by the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA) is challenging widely held assumptions about the nature of violence in Nigeria, arguing that armed groups categorized as “Fulani Terror Groups” have been responsible for significantly more civilian deaths than Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and that Christians have borne a disproportionate share of the violence.
The report, titled “Killings and Abductions in Nigeria (2020–2025),” was released on June 30 and examines violence recorded between October 2019 and September 2025. According to the study, 79,323 people were killed and nearly 35,000 abducted in attacks linked to groups ORFA identifies as terrorist actors operating across the country.
Findings Challenge Established Assumptions
At the center of the report is ORFA’s assertion that prevailing narratives about Nigeria’s security crisis have focused too heavily on Boko Haram and ISWAP while underestimating the role of other armed groups.
According to the organization, Boko Haram and ISWAP together accounted for only 12% of civilian killings recorded during the six-year period. In contrast, armed groups classified by ORFA as “Fulani Terror Groups” were responsible for 44% of civilian deaths.
“The data makes this very difficult to ignore,” said Frans Vierhout, Senior Research Analyst at ORFA. “We look at how killing occurs. Who they target, where they operate, the seasonal fluctuations of killings — and the evidence points strongly in one direction.”
Vierhout argued that violence associated with Fulani militias has become the primary driver of civilian deaths in Nigeria. “Violence linked to Fulani militias is the dominant force behind Nigeria’s death toll. The Western preoccupation with Boko Haram is, at best, misleading,” he said.
He also warned that Nigeria may be fostering a growing terrorist threat that remains insufficiently recognized internationally, describing the country as “incubating a terror network which the outside world has yet to acknowledge.”
Religious Identity of Victims Highlighted
A major focus of the study is the religious identity of victims and the extent to which faith may influence patterns of violence.
ORFA estimates that, after accounting for victims whose religious affiliation could not immediately be determined, approximately 28,551 Christians were killed during the study period compared with 13,224 Muslims.
The report further concludes that, relative to local population figures in affected regions, Christians were killed at a rate approximately 4.4 times higher than Muslims.
Researchers said the inclusion of religious affiliation was necessary because competing explanations exist regarding the causes of violence in Nigeria.
“ORFA is not taking sides,” the report states. “The observatory wants to let the data speak for itself without purposefully steering towards one or the other of these narratives.”
According to the researchers, examining victims’ religious backgrounds is critical to understanding whether particular communities are being disproportionately targeted and to developing more effective responses to insecurity.
Community Raids Responsible for Majority of Civilian Deaths
The study found that large-scale attacks on communities accounted for most civilian fatalities.
Of the 79,323 people killed during the reporting period, ORFA recorded 42,033 civilian deaths. The report states that 75% of those civilian fatalities occurred during raids on farming communities, incidents often characterized by killings, property destruction, abductions, and forced displacement.
Researchers argue that these attacks represent a broader pattern of organized violence affecting vulnerable rural populations across multiple regions of Nigeria.
In addition to killings, the report documents 34,773 civilian abductions between October 2019 and September 2025, underscoring the scale of Nigeria’s security crisis.
Questions Raised Over Treatment of Hostages
While Christian and Muslim civilians were reportedly abducted in similar numbers overall, ORFA’s accompanying field research suggests significant differences in the treatment of captives based on religion.
Steven Kefas, Senior Research Analyst at ORFA and author of “Captivity by Creed: The Religious Sorting System Nobody Talks About,” said survivor testimonies point to systematic disparities.
“The field research reveals lesser value is assigned to a Christian life,” Kefas said. “From the moment of capture, Muslim and Christian hostages enter different realities. It is not about individual captors. It is a system — consistent across multiple states, armed groups, and multiple years of survivor testimony.”
According to ORFA, Christian hostages often faced higher ransom demands, longer detention periods, and a greater likelihood of execution. The report also alleges that Christian women were more vulnerable to sexual violence, forced conversion, and forced marriage while in captivity.
Distinction Drawn Between Armed Groups and Fulani Population
Throughout the report, ORFA emphasizes that its findings should not be interpreted as an indictment of the broader Fulani community.
The organization repeatedly states that the term “Fulani Terror Groups” refers specifically to armed actors involved in violence and not to the Fulani population as a whole.
ORFA noted that “the vast majority” of Fulani people are not involved in violent activities and stressed the importance of distinguishing between militant groups and ethnic identity.
The report also observes that many Muslims have been victims of violence carried out by these armed groups.
“It is important to understand this shift because FEM has not only targeted Christian civilians but also non-Fulani Muslim civilians,” the researchers wrote.
According to the study, Christian civilians were often targeted because of their faith, while Muslim victims were frequently attacked because they did not belong to the Fulani ethnic group.
Call for Greater Recognition of Religious Freedom Concerns
In its concluding recommendations, ORFA calls on governments, policymakers, civil society organizations, and international partners to take its findings into account when addressing Nigeria’s ongoing security challenges.
The organization argues that religion should be more prominently considered in efforts to understand and respond to violence. Recommendations include strengthening protections for vulnerable communities, improving local security measures, defending freedom of religion or belief, and ending impunity for perpetrators.
Researchers contend that failure to acknowledge the religious dimension identified in their data could lead to incomplete or ineffective policy responses.
“We strongly encourage the reader to study the full report,” the report concludes. “It provides vital context and offers a roadmap for addressing the ongoing challenges in Nigeria.”
The study presents a detailed examination of one of Africa’s most complex security crises and is likely to fuel further debate over the causes, drivers, and victims of violence in Nigeria. As policymakers and international observers assess the findings, ORFA argues that understanding both the security and religious dimensions of the conflict will be essential to crafting lasting solutions.
- Raju Hasmukh with files from EWTN News
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