The truth is no one really knows what to expect from the conclave. Due to being both a divine and human event, papal conclaves are usually almost impossible to predict.
Newsroom (07/05/2025 21:15, Gaudium Press) An often heard phrase is he who enters the conclave as a pope leaves as a cardinal. Another Roman phase is “A fat pope follows a thin one” this adage in the Catholic Church describing a perceived trend that conclaves tend to counterbalance the preceding pope with one having different ideological emphases.
Yet many Catholic’s like to try to guess at which cardinal could become the pope. We review here some of the papabili.
Cardinal Jean-Marc Noël Aveline
Cardinal Jean-Marc Noël Aveline, the 66 year old Archbishop of Marseille and allegedly Pope Francis’ “favorite” cardinal to succeed him, is an affable, heterodox-leaning prelate with broad appeal who is dedicated to issues of migration and interreligious dialogue.
Progressive Catholics especially tend to like what they see in Aveline. In some French Catholic circles he’s known as “John XXIV,” a reference not only to the reform-minded spirit of “Good Pope John” and the Second Vatican Council, but also to the fact that the smiling, somewhat frumpy and roly-poly Aveline bears a striking physical resemblance to John XXIII.
The question then arises is whether, given Aveline’s relative youth, his brother cardinals would want to continue along that path for what would likely be a long pontificate.
Aveline was one of 21 cardinals created by Pope Francis at the consistory of August 27, 2022, making him France’s fifth cardinal-elector at the time. He is seen by some in France as putting an end to a four decade “dynasty” of the late Cardinal Jean-Marie Lustiger of Paris and heralding the “new era” that Francis often speaks about.
1. Background & Path to the Cardinalate
-
Born: December 26, 1958, in Sfax, Tunisia (to French parents; family relocated to Marseille in 1963).
-
Ordained: 1984 for Marseille; earned a theology doctorate from the Gregorian University (Rome).
-
Key Roles:
-
Rector of Marseille’s seminary (1994–2007).
-
Auxiliary Bishop of Marseille (2013–2019).
-
Archbishop of Marseille (2019–present).
-
Elevated to Cardinal by Pope Francis (2022).
-
2. Theological & Pastoral Approach
-
Synodal Reformer: Strong advocate for Pope Francis’s synodal Church model, emphasizing lay participation. Aveline favors radical decentralization in the Church, often repeating that the Church’s “center of gravity is not in herself, but in God’s relationship with the world.” On returning from an assembly of French bishops in Lourdes, he said it is “pride that is eating away at the Church” and that “far from stubbornly seeking to protect herself as an institution, she must accept to lose everything in order to gain Christ. Her salvation lies in conversion to the Gospel.”
-
Interfaith Leader: Promotes Christian-Muslim dialogue (critical in Marseille, France’s most Muslim city). He adopts the classic distinction between Islam and Islamism, stressing that the latter is an “ideology” that disguises the Muslim religion. In a lecture on Christian-Islamic dialogue given on October 19, 2021 in Boulogne-Billancourt, he recommended giving priority to sharing concrete initiatives with Muslims, rather than theological discussions.
-
Moderate Progressive: On some of the most contentious issues likely to create controversy within the Church — women’s ordination, the questioning of priestly celibacy, access to Communion for remarried divorcees — Cardinal Aveline maintains a cautious attitude and is reluctant to take a clear stand either way. He prefers not to speak about sensitive issues or reveal his political leanings.
He adopts a proactive stance on issues that have come to the fore under Pope Francis’ pontificate, such as inter-religious dialogue or the welcome of migrants, without, however, demonstrating any aggressive militancy on these issues. He thus appears as a rather liberal figure, but one inclined to consensus.
-
Migrant Advocate: Marseille’s port makes migration a key issue; he urges “welcoming without naivety.” He has sought to propose a nuanced perspective on the migration problem, which he believes cannot be resolved by an unlimited welcome of the other. “We can’t solve the problems of immigration simply by saying we must offer welcome. Of course we must welcome, but we must welcome for the common good. It’s not just the common good of migrants, but also the good of everyone,” he explained to the French regional press at the time of the Pope’s visit to Marseille
3. Liturgical Orientation
- At the time of Traditionis Custodes’ publication, he renewed his support for priests celebrating in the vetus ordo in warm, unambiguous terms. For example, he told the faithful attending the church of Saint-Charles in Marseille, entrusted to the Missionaries of Divine Mercy: “I greatly rejoice in what is being lived at Saint-Charles, thanks to the ministry of the priests who are at your service, and thanks to your responsible and generous assistance. I renew all my confidence in Father Éloi Gillet, who has accompanied you for a long time with great dedication and a concern for unity in the diocesan Church.”
- Aveline has also shown some sympathy to French Catholicism’s small but influential traditionalist wing. Among other things, he tried unsuccessfully to mediate a dispute in the Diocese of Toulon between Bishop Dominque Rey, who’s a personal friend, and the Vatican over issues such as welcoming traditionalist movements and ordaining large numbers of priests attached to the old Latin Mass. In the end, Rey was compelled to resign anyway in January, but traditionalists nonetheless remember Aveline’s efforts to help.
-
On the occasion of the remembrance Mass celebrated for the Foreign Legion on January 27, 2019, he drew a strong parallel between the priest and the legionnaire. According to him, for legionnaires and priests alike, the mission is synonymous with sacrifice, even unto death. “Not to deviate from one’s mission, even at the risk of one’s own life, is to experience salvation: you go to the end because of what you believe,”
- Cardinal Aveline remains cautious on the question of the place of women in the Church and their possible accession to the diaconate or priesthood.
4. Vatican Influence
-
Synod on Synodality: Played a prominent role in the 2023 assembly, pushing for decentralization.
-
Papal Confidant: Seen as a “Francis Bishop“—pastorally focused, intellectually open.
Conclusion
Aveline embodies Pope Francis’s vision for a “listening Church” in one of Europe’s most complex dioceses. His North African roots, interfaith work, and synodal leadership make him a rising star in the College of Cardinals. He is considered as one to continue the Pope Francis legacy but perhaps with a bit more consideration for Catholics of differing temperaments, someone capable of reducing the internal tensions in the church rather than to exacerbating them.
According to a profile in the progressive Catholic daily La Croix, Cardinal Aveline is regarded as a “real man of prayer,” a “much loved pastor” in his diocese, and as having a “common touch” helped by Mediterranean bonhomie which gives him a reassuringly unifying aura. He is said to be deeply relational and someone who looks for new ways of relating to people.
But critics regard his inter faith dialogue ideas as dangerous, distinctly heterodox and modernist. His views, they claim, veer into indifferentism, departing from the traditional understanding of the Catholic faith, divine revelation, and the necessity of the Church for salvation. His Critics, contend that from his past writings and in his approach to interfaith dialogue, Aveline relativises Christianity, has a naturalistic view of religion, and denies the dogma of extra ecclesiam nulla salus, rejecting it as an infallible patristic formulation.
By quietly sidelining the supernatural faith, they also say it is unsurprising that Aveline’s ideas veer away from orthodoxy, and that he is more focused on the natural body of humanity than the Mystical Body of Christ.
Aveline’s view that other religions have a role in salvation means that Christ’s unique mediation includes false religions, a teaching that is irreconcilable with the truths of the Catholic faith.
- Raju Hasmukh with files from collegeofcardinalsreport.com
Related Images:
