Brazil’s 2022 census shows Catholic decline slowing to 56.7%, evangelical growth to 26.9%. Religious shift decelerates, with evangelicals dominant in two states.
Newsroom, June 21, 2025, Gaudium Press – Brazil’s religious landscape continues to evolve, with the Catholic population declining and evangelical numbers rising, though the pace of this shift has slowed, according to the 2022 census data released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) on June 6, 2025.
The census shows Catholics dropped from 65.1% of the population in 2010 to 56.7% in 2022, a decrease of 8.4 percentage points. Meanwhile, evangelicals grew from 21.6% to 26.9%, adding 12 million adherents to reach 47.4 million. The religiously unaffiliated also rose, from 7.9% to 9.3%, totaling 16.4 million.
Slower Transition Defies Projections
The data indicates a decelerating shift from Catholicism to evangelicalism, challenging earlier forecasts. Demographer José Eustáquio Diniz Alves noted that predictions of evangelicals surpassing Catholics by 2032 now point to 2049, with the Catholic decline rate slowing from -1.04% annually (1991–2000) to -0.89% (2000–2010) and -0.69% (2010–2022). Evangelical growth also eased, rising by 5.2% from 2010–2022 compared to 6.5% the prior decade.
“Catholicism continues to decline, and evangelicals keep growing, but at a slower pace,” Diniz Alves said, attributing the trend to strategic adaptations by the Catholic Church, including the charismatic renewal movement and Pope Francis’s relatable leadership since his 2013 Brazil visit. “Francis’s focus on social and environmental issues resonates with people’s lives, unlike the more distant intellectualism of Benedict XVI,” he added.
Catholic Strategies and Evangelical Challenges
Archbishop João Justino de Medeiros Silva of Goiânia, vice president of Brazil’s bishops’ conference, suggested that many who left Catholicism had “fragile ties” to their communities, making them susceptible to other faiths. He highlighted the Church’s evolving evangelization efforts, noting 200 adult baptisms in his archdiocese during Easter 2025 and growing participation in confirmation sacraments. “The Church is maturing its pastoral approach. In 10 years, we may see even fewer losses,” he said.
On the evangelical side, Diniz Alves pointed to political polarization as a factor in slowing growth. Many evangelical churches aligned with former President Jair Bolsonaro’s far-right agenda, including controversial policies like loosening gun control, potentially alienating moderate churchgoers.
Regional and Demographic Shifts
The census underscores regional disparities. The Northeast remains a Catholic stronghold, with Piauí at 77.4% Catholic, while the Amazon region, particularly Acre (44.4% evangelical vs. 38.9% Catholic) and Roraima, has seen evangelicals overtake Catholics. Evangelicals dominate in 245 municipalities, signaling a potential future trend.
Evangelicals are demographically diverse, with 12% Black and 49.1% mixed-race, overrepresented compared to national averages (10.7% Black, 44.3% mixed-race). Women make up 55.4% of evangelicals, compared to 51.8% of the overall population.
Broader Religious Trends
Afro-Brazilian religions like Umbanda and Candomblé grew from 0.3% to 1%, with the strongest presence in the South (1.6%) and Southeast (1.4%). Spiritualism declined from 2.2% to 1.8%, concentrated in the Southeast.
Some demographers argue the religious transition may stall, with Catholicism stabilizing as it retains a core base. However, Diniz Alves countered, “Two states and 245 cities have already transitioned to evangelical majorities. Why wouldn’t the rest of Brazil follow?”
Political and Social Implications
The shifting religious landscape carries political weight. Evangelicals, a key support base for Bolsonaro, show lower approval (30%) for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration compared to Catholics (45%), posing challenges for his leftist government.
As Brazil navigates this transformation, the Catholic Church’s renewed focus on community engagement and evangelicalism’s political alignment will shape the nation’s religious and social future.
Raju Hasmukh with sources from:
-Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), 2022 Census: Religions: Preliminary Sample Results
-Christianity Today, “In Brazil, Evangelicals Rise to Record Levels, But Growth Is Slowing”
-The Guardian, “Catholics Now Make Up Little More Than Half Brazil’s Population”
– AInvest, “Brazil’s Catholic Population Declines, Evangelical Faith Surges Amid Census Data Release
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