The truth is no one really knows what to expect from the conclave. Due to being both a divine and human event, papal conclaves are usually almost impossible to predict.
Newsroom (07/05/2025 08:30, Gaudium Press) An often heard phrase is he who enters the conclave as a pope leaves as a cardinal. Another Roman phase is “A fat pope follows a thin one” this adage in the Catholic Church describing a perceived trend that conclaves tend to counterbalance the preceding pope with one having different ideological emphases.
Yet many Catholic’s like to try to guess at which cardinal could become the pope. We review here some of the papabili.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Cardinal Pietro Parolin was born in Schiavon, in the province and Diocese of Vicenza in Northern Italy. Now aged 70, the Vatican’s former Secretary of State, has emerged as a leading candidate. He has had no pastoral experience having always served as a Vatican diplomat. The Italian cardinal has played key roles in international negotiations, including relations with China, Venezuela, and the Middle East. He was a close and trusted advisor to Pope Francis, aligning with Francis’ vision of Church reform, and the only Francis appointee who remained in his post throughout the pontificate.
1. Background & Career Highlights
Born: January 17, 1955, in Schiavon, Italy.
Ordained: 1980; entered Vatican diplomatic service in 1986.
Papal Nuncio: Served in Nigeria (2002–2009) and Mexico (2009–2013).
Secretary of State: Appointed by Pope Francis in 2013 (the Vatican’s highest administrative role).
Elevated to Cardinal: 2014.
2. Religious & Theological Outlook
Diplomatic Pragmatism: A pragmatist and student of Cardinal Achille Silvestrini, a prelate known for dissenting from Church teaching, Cardinal Parolin focuses on dialogue, diplomacy and peaceful resolutions over emphasizing doctrine
Synod on the Family (2015): Supported Pope Francis’s approach to divorced/remarried Catholics while upholding doctrine.
Ecumenism & Interfaith Dialogue: Promotes relations with Orthodox Churches, Judaism, and Islam (e.g., helped negotiate the 2018 China-Vatican deal).
Opposes Liberal Reforms: Rejects women’s ordination and same-sex marriage but favors pastoral flexibility.
Second Vatican Council: Parolin has said he views the Second Vatican Council as revolutionary — “the new paradigm of a world-dimension Church” that some are concerned would turn the Church into a permanent synod
3. Political & Diplomatic Influence
Vatican’s “Prime Minister”: Manages Vatican relations with 180+ countries.
Key Negotiations:
China-Vatican Deal (2018): Controversial agreement on bishop appointments. This is viewed as his Achilles heel and is strongly opposed by Cardinal Joseph Zen Ze-Kiun and many others.
U.S.-Vatican Relations: Advised on climate change, migration, and Middle East policy.
Ukraine War: Pushed for peace talks but avoided alienating Russia.
4. Stance on Social Issues
Migration: Advocates for compassionate policies but warns against destabilization.
Climate Change: Supports Laudato Si’ and Vatican environmental diplomacy.
Anti-Corruption: Worked on Vatican financial reforms (e.g., transparency in the Secretariat of State). Here however, Parolin’s management of certain aspects of Vatican finances have also been questioned — namely, his roles in hindering, or at least failing to promote, financial reform, and his opaque involvement in a London property scandal for which he was never indicted but which led to prison sentences for some of his collaborators in the Secretariat of State.
5. Relationship with Pope Francis
Trusted Confidant: One of Francis’s closest advisors, though less ideological than Cardinal Fernández. As someone who wishes to be close to the poor and with an ecclesial and political outlook similar to Francis, he is seen as a natural successor to the current pope if cardinal electors wanted a continuity figure, someone expected to pursue many, if not all, of Francis’ radical reforms but in a quieter, subtler, and more diplomatic manner.
Conclusion
Parolin is a skilled diplomat, theological moderate, and key power broker in the Vatican. His legacy hinges on balancing tradition with global engagement, though his China policy remains contentious.
To his critics, Cardinal Parolin is a modernist progressive with a globalist vision, a pragmatist who will place ideology and diplomatic solutions above hard truths of the faith. They also consider Parolin to be a master of the discredited Ostpolitik brand of diplomacy of the 1960s, especially when dealing with China.
To his supporters, Cardinal Parolin is a courageous idealist, an avid proponent of peace, and a master of discretion and arbitration who wants no more than to carve out a new future for the Church in the twenty-first century.
- Raju Hasmukh with files from collegeofcardinalsreport.com
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