Could Pope Leo XIV Be Preparing His Biggest Vatican Shake-Up Yet?

For months, many in Rome assumed Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State since 2013, would remain securely in place, perhaps even until reaching retirement age. But recent speculation circulating through diplomatic and Vatican circles suggests that assumption may no longer be as certain as it once seemed.

If Pope Leo does decide to replace Parolin, the move would amount to one of the most consequential decisions of his pontificate so far. The Secretary of State is not merely another Vatican official. The position functions as the pope’s principal institutional adviser and serves as the central coordinating authority across the Roman Curia.

While only the pope knows whether a change is actually being considered, reports from diplomatic and Vatican sources have fueled growing discussion that Parolin’s future could be under review.

Why Is The Speculation Growing?

The rumors are rooted less in a specific event than in questions reportedly emerging about the effectiveness of the Secretariat of State’s coordinating role under Parolin’s leadership.

For more than a decade, Parolin has been one of the most powerful figures in the Catholic Church. Appointed by Pope Francis in 2013, he became the face of Vatican diplomacy and played a central role in some of the Francis pontificate’s most important international initiatives.

At the same time, his years in office accumulated their share of controversies.

His involvement in the Vatican-China agreement remains a source of debate in some Church circles, while the fallout from the London property scandal continues to linger over the final years of the Francis era.

Earlier this year, rumors suggested Parolin might be moved to a major Italian see such as Milan or Venice. Those possibilities never materialized, and subsequent personnel decisions appeared to strengthen his position rather than weaken it.

The appointment of Archbishop Paolo Rudelli as sostituto of the Secretariat of State was widely interpreted as a victory for Parolin, particularly after the departure of Archbishop Edgar Peña Parra, whose relationship with the cardinal was often described as strained.

As a result, many Vatican observers concluded that Parolin’s position was secure.

Yet speculation persists that Pope Leo may be thinking differently.

A Traditional Successor?

If Leo decides to act, conventional Vatican wisdom points toward a familiar type of candidate: a senior diplomat from within the existing curial structure.

Two names repeatedly emerge in Vatican conversations.

The first is Archbishop Paul Gallagher, currently secretary for relations with states and one of the Vatican’s most recognizable diplomatic figures.

Gallagher would represent continuity. He is broadly respected, experienced, and viewed as a safe administrator capable of managing a smooth transition.

Yet there is one obvious challenge to his candidacy. At 72, Gallagher is older than Parolin.

That reality has prompted some observers to wonder whether he would be chosen only as a temporary steward while Leo gains a deeper understanding of the Church’s global diplomatic corps.

Such a move would allow the pope flexibility while avoiding a rushed long-term appointment.

The other frequently mentioned candidate is Archbishop Fortunatus Nwachukwu.

A veteran diplomat with decades of international experience, Nwachukwu has served in senior Vatican positions, in multiple nunciatures, and as the Holy See’s representative to the United Nations in Geneva. He is widely regarded as intellectually accomplished and administratively capable.

At 66, he would offer something Gallagher cannot: longevity.

If appointed, Nwachukwu could potentially shape Vatican diplomacy for a decade or more.

His candidacy would also be historic, elevating the most senior African official in the Roman Curia to one of the Church’s most influential positions.

Could Leo Surprise Everyone?

An even more intriguing possibility is that neither Gallagher nor Nwachukwu ultimately gets the job.

Pope Leo’s appointment record so far suggests he may be more willing than many expected to look beyond traditional Vatican career paths.

Several of his recent appointments have involved figures whose backgrounds would not have placed them among the obvious favorites under previous pontificates.

Those decisions have sparked speculation that Leo values competence, trust, administrative ability, and missionary experience as much as institutional seniority.

If that trend continues, the next Secretary of State might not come from the Vatican diplomatic establishment at all.

Such a choice would be highly unusual. The Secretariat of State occupies a unique role within Vatican governance, and popes have historically favored individuals with extensive diplomatic experience.

Still, Leo has shown little hesitation about challenging assumptions elsewhere.

That reality has led some observers to wonder whether the eventual successor to Parolin could emerge from outside the names currently dominating Vatican rumor mills.

The Parolin Question

Any discussion about replacing Parolin inevitably leads to another question: where would he go next?

At 71, he remains far from retirement by Vatican standards.

Among the more persistent theories is that he could be appointed archpriest of one of Rome’s papal basilicas, a role often viewed as a dignified landing place for senior churchmen completing major curial assignments.

Possible vacancies at Saint Peter’s Basilica and Saint Mary Major have fueled further speculation.

Some reports suggest Parolin could be moved to Saint Peter’s itself. Others point toward Cardinal Rolandas Makrickas as a stronger candidate for that post, potentially creating a different opening elsewhere.

At the moment, none of these scenarios appears settled.

A Defining Decision

For now, all of this remains speculation.

No public indication has been given that Pope Leo has made a final decision about Parolin’s future, and Vatican personnel predictions are notoriously unreliable.

Yet the discussion itself is revealing.

Whether Leo ultimately keeps Parolin in place, elevates a veteran diplomat such as Gallagher or Nwachukwu, or surprises the Church with an unconventional choice, the eventual decision will offer one of the clearest indicators yet of how he intends to govern.

And if the Vatican rumor mill is correct, that moment of clarity may arrive sooner rather than later.

• Raju Hasmukh with files from The Pillar