The truth is no one really knows what to expect from the conclave. Due to being both a divine and human event, papal conclaves are usually almost impossible to predict.
Newsroom (07/05/2025 19:45, Gaudium Press) An often heard phrase is he who enters the conclave as a pope leaves as a cardinal. Another Roman phase is “A fat pope follows a thin one” this adage in the Catholic Church describing a perceived trend that conclaves tend to counterbalance the preceding pope with one having different ideological emphases.
Yet many Catholic’s like to try to guess at which cardinal could become the pope. We review here some of the papabili.
Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost
A former prefect of the influential Dicastery for Bishops, is a Chicago-born prelate with views close to Pope Francis who spent many years as a missionary in Peru before being elected head of the Augustinians for two consecutive terms. Prevost was appointed a member of the Dicastery for Bishops in 2020. Later, Pope Francis told him he was thinking of selecting him as the department’s head, making him responsible for the selection of the world’s Latin Rite bishops (except mission territories, covered by the Dicastery for Evangelization.)
As his fellow prelates have gotten to know the former Augustinian superior, many of them like what they see: a moderate, balanced figure, known for solid judgment and a keen capacity to listen, and someone who doesn’t need to pound his chest to be heard.
1. Background & Ecclesiastical Career
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Born: September 14, 1955, in Chicago, Illinois (of Peruvian-American heritage).
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Augustinian Friar: Joined the Order of St. Augustine (O.S.A.) in 1977, ordained in 1982.
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Missionary Focus: Served in Peru (1985–1999) as pastor and later Vicar General of Chiclayo.
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Leadership Roles:
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Prior General of the Augustinians (2001–2013, reelected in 2013).
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Bishop of Chiclayo, Peru (2015–2023).
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Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops (2023–present): Oversees global bishop appointments.
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2. Theological & Pastoral Orientation
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Moderate Conservatism: Balances doctrinal orthodoxy with pastoral pragmatism He supported Pope Francis’ change in pastoral practice to allow divorced and civilly remarried Catholics to receive Holy Communion.
Prevost appears somewhat less favorable to currying favor with the LGBTQ lobby than Francis, but he showed mild support for Fiducia Supplicans
He is faithful to the magisterium, showing himself to be balanced in his interventions and zealous regarding orthodoxy. In Chiclayo, he did not get involved in controversial initiatives. Nor is he a radical reformer, like some cardinals from the German or American circles.
Prevost is something of a cypher when it comes to many of the contested issues in Catholic life. In terms of where he stands on matters such as the ordination of women deacons, or the Latin Mass, he’s played his cards awfully close to his chest.
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Synodal Approach: Advocates for bishops who are “pastors, not bureaucrats”—emphasizing humility and proximity to the faithful. He said last year “the bishop is not supposed to be a little prince sitting in his kingdom.”
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Social Justice: Focused on indigenous rights and poverty alleviation in Latin America. He has a pastoral approach that emphasizes meeting people where they are.
3. Influence in the Vatican
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Bishop-Maker: Now one of the most powerful cardinals, shaping the global episcopate alongside Pope Francis. He is known for his discreet and thoughtful approach, and has been praised by peers for his attentive listening skills, ability to synthesize complex issues, and judicious questioning
In practice, Prevost helped shape the episcopate of Francis’ pontificate, with more synodal appointments, pastors close to the people and less focused on ecclesiastical titles. This action can be interpreted both as a continuation of the current papacy and as preparation for the future.
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Reform Agenda: Expected to advance Francis’s vision of “a poor Church for the poor” in bishop selections.
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U.S.-Latin America Bridge: Brings unique perspective as a bilingual (Spanish/English) American with deep Latin American ties.
4. Controversies & Challenges
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Peruvian Abuse situation: Faced criticism in Chiclayo for handling clerical abuse cases (though credited with transparency efforts). Two priests were accused of molesting three young girls, with the allegations surfacing in April 2022 during Prevost’s tenure as bishop. The case has been a source of frustration for local Catholics due to its slow progress and unclear resolution.
In July 2022, Prevost sent the results of the investigation to the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith (DDF) for review. His supporters stress that he has documents from the DDF and the Papal Nunciature in Peru which also indicate that he was not only attentive to the presumed victims, but that he did all required in Church law in following procedures set out for these cases.
However, in May 2025 allegations emerged that the diocese paid $150,000 to the three girls to silence them. Described as “longtime public critics of Prevost,” the girls reportedly blame Prevost for covering up their sexual abuse by the priest.
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Traditionalist Pushback: Some conservatives distrust his alignment with Francis’s reformist agenda.
Conclusion
Prevost is now the gatekeeper of Catholic leadership worldwide, positioned to shape the Church’s future for decades. His cross-cultural background and reformist conservatism make him a pivotal Francis ally.
Cardinal Prevost is being promoted as a possible compromise candidate if leading candidates are unable to obtain enough votes. His lengthy missionary service in Peru, first as a priest and later as a bishop over a total of 22 years, allows him to be seen more as an international candidate than an American one.
Prevost does not play to classic stereotypes of brash American arrogance. Instead, as both the Italian newspaper La Repubblica and the national TV network RAI recently put it, he comes off as il meno americano tra gli americani, “the least American of the Americans.” which mitigates choosing a pope from a superpower in his case. However, he might be considered too young and too recently made a cardinal (2023) to be seriously considered papabile with any significant chance of being elected.
- Raju Hasmukh with files from collegeofcardinalsreport.com
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