The Upcoming 2026 is shaping up to be the decisive year for Leo XIV to leave his mark and finally turn the page written by his predecessor.
Editorial Staff (10/12/2025 11:31, Gaudium Press) If the reader found the headline amusing, know that it is as witty as it is true. With less than a year into his pontificate, Leo XIV has already marked 2026 with what is set to become the true baptism of his governance: the consistories. One is already on the immediate horizon and has an extraordinary character; the other remains in the realm of hypothesis, but it is precisely there that the new Pope’s deeper strategy for the College of Cardinals takes shape.
According to Roman observers, the Pope will call an extraordinary consistory in January not to create cardinals, but to host a major meeting for discussion—something many cardinals insisted upon during the general congregations that preceded the conclave. After years marked by a more centralized style of governance, where decisions of the College were rare and replaced by fluid advisory bodies, the new Pope appears to want to return to the cardinals their proper role: that of a stable council and a forum for debating the great questions of Church life.
The mere convocation of all cardinals to Rome at the beginning of 2026 is a clear signal of a shift. During the previous pontificate, extraordinary consistories almost disappeared, while the number of new cardinals from peripheral and less representative dioceses multiplied. Thus was formed a large, geographically diverse but fragmented College, with many cardinals barely knowing each other.
In contrast to this trend, Leo XIV has chosen, right at the start of his pontificate, a moment of meeting and listening that allows him to assess the College’s actual disposition, its degree of unity, and its main concerns.
This first consistory should not include the creation of new cardinals because current canonical arithmetic does not allow it. The current constitution establishes that only cardinals under 80 years old may vote in a future conclave and that the number of electors must be capped at 120. Although this limit has been exceeded multiple times in recent years—peaking above 130 electors—the current number still remains above the permissible threshold. Several studies indicate that this total will likely not fall below 120 before the end of 2026, as some cardinals will only reach the age of 80 after this period. Thus, there would be no “legal room” for new appointments at the beginning of the year.
However, nothing prevents the Pope from calling an ordinary consistory at the end of 2026 for the creation of new cardinals. This is where expectations quietly circulate among experienced Vatican watchers.
Leo XIV inherited a College deeply marked by the previous pontificate, during which the vast majority of electors were appointed by Francis, favouring many peripheral dioceses and neglecting historically significant sees of great pastoral and symbolic weight. In recent years, it became almost routine for traditionally Cardinal-led archdioceses such as Paris, Milan, or Los Angeles to be led by archbishops without the red hat, while tiny dioceses in remote regions gained conclave representation. This choice, although expanding the College’s geographic diversity, also produced asymmetries that are now clearly visible.
As 2026 progresses and various cardinals near the age of 80, the possibility of a new balance emerges. A consistory at the end of the year would allow the Pope to secure a natural reserve of electors for a future conclave and, at the same time, restore the tradition of Cardinal sees. Milan, for instance, was throughout much of the 20th century one of the most prestigious seats in the Church, cradle of figures who later became popes or led significant reforms and spiritual movements. The absence of a Milanese cardinal is seen by many as a difficult gap to justify. The same goes for Los Angeles, now the largest archdiocese in the United States and representative of an expanding Catholicism deeply marked by Hispanic presence. Granting the red hat to the Archbishop of Los Angeles would also recognize the Latin American Catholic vitality in the northern hemisphere and the growing religious and cultural role of that local Church.
A potential return to the tradition of cardinalatial sees would not represent a rupture with the option for the peripheries, but a gesture of rebalancing. Leo XIV seems to move under the principle of “corrected continuity”: he preserves the missionary impulses, the attention to the margins, and the ecclesial dynamism outside Europe, but rebalances the whole, recalling that the College of Cardinals, to function as a consultative and electoral body, must include both universality and institutional solidity. It is not about going backward, but about harmonizing.
To this balance is added the Pope’s own biographical weight. His American origin and familiarity with Latin America make him understand the importance of Churches like Los Angeles; his sensitivity to historic Catholic traditions, in turn, makes it natural for him to look with esteem at sees like Milan or Paris. His election was the result of a delicate consensus among diverse sectors—some more aligned with the previous pontificate, others eager for corrections. The new Pope knows he cannot govern by fueling conflicts and that restoration often begins with concrete signs, such as prudent choices in the College that will one day elect his successor.
Therefore, 2026 is shaping up to be decisive for Leo XIV to leave his mark and definitively turn the page written by his predecessor. With an extraordinary consistory at the start of the year, the Pope returns to the cardinals the chance to meet, dialogue, and play a more active role in the life of the Church. With the potential convocation of another consistory—this time ordinary and dedicated to the creation of new cardinals—he could reconfigure the College with balance, firmness, and attention to the traditions that gave cohesion to the Church’s central structure.
Should he proceed in this way, Leo XIV will show that he intends to govern by listening but also by deciding; by correcting deviations without erasing progress; honouring the peripheries without forgetting the value of the great sees that for centuries helped give face, moral authority, and stability to the universal Church. Thus, 2026 could be the year when his pontificate truly begins—and the previous one, finally ends.
By Rafael Ribeiro
Compiled. by Gustavo Kralj
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