As Venezuela shifts post-Maduro, the Vatican’s subtle diplomacy rises, reshaping ties across Cuba, Nicaragua, and the wider Western Hemisphere.
Newsroom (14/01/2026 Gaudium Press ) The sudden removal of Nicolás Maduro from power in a pre-dawn U.S. military operation last month shocked the world—not only for its boldness but for what followed. As Venezuela faces a precarious political transition, a new diplomatic reality is emerging: the Vatican, long regarded as a moral voice rather than a geopolitical force, may be positioning itself as a renewed player in diplomacy in Western Hemisphere politics.
Behind the scenes of Maduro’s dramatic arrest, the Holy See played a subtler but significant role. According to reports from The Washington Post, the U.S. ambassador to the Vatican was summoned on Christmas Eve by Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State. The purpose: to discuss the fate of the Venezuelan dictator. Parolin reportedly communicated that Russia was prepared to offer Maduro exile, urging Washington to delay military action to allow a peaceful transition. Though those pleas went unheeded, the episode underscored the Vatican’s deep—and perhaps underestimated—connections in global diplomacy.
A Missed Chance for Maduro, a Strategic Opening for Rome
For years, the Holy See maintained cautious distance from the volatile politics of Venezuela. It sought to act as an honest broker while keeping its diplomacy distinct from the often-oppressed Venezuelan episcopate. While the Vatican mediated in post-election discussions between Maduro and his opposition, the efforts yielded little. The regime used the Church’s moral legitimacy when useful—celebrating the canonization of Venezuelan saints as national events—while continuing to pressure and silence priests critical of government abuses.
Yet, as events now show, the Vatican was more attuned to impending shifts than Maduro himself. By the time U.S. troops moved, Parolin already knew what was coming, had secured Russia’s willingness to host the deposed leader, and had even made a last attempt to forestall bloodshed. Maduro’s failure to take those warnings seriously appears, with hindsight, as part of the misjudgment that sealed his downfall.
The New Calculus Across Latin America
Maduro’s capture reverberated well beyond Venezuela. In the weeks since, governments across the region have reexamined their diplomatic postures, particularly toward the Vatican. Cuba, long under the shadow of both U.S. pressure and Vatican mediation, now faces possible American intervention. Its leadership may see advantage in engaging with Rome—not because the Holy See can block Washington’s plans, but because it can serve as a discreet intermediary, capable of reducing tensions or at least conveying timely intelligence.
In Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega, who has spent years dismantling relations with the Catholic Church, appears to be recalibrating. Within days of Maduro’s removal, his regime announced plans to release political prisoners and responded publicly to U.S. criticisms, including those highlighting the persecution of priests and religious workers. For a government that has expelled the papal nuncio, seized Church property, and imprisoned clergy, such gestures may reflect both fear and opportunity.
Ortega likely remembers the fate of another dictator—Panama’s Manuel Noriega—removed by U.S. forces in 1989 and briefly sheltered in the Vatican embassy before capture. The historical echo is too sharp to ignore.
An American Pope and a Global Strategy
The Vatican’s revived influence cannot be attributed solely to timing. The election of Pope Leo—the first American pope—has brought a new dimension to Rome’s diplomatic reach at a moment when U.S. foreign policy itself has grown unpredictable. Under his leadership, the Holy See has asserted its relevance in volatile regions, from Ukraine to Latin America, emphasizing dialogue where great powers pursue confrontation.
In Europe, Pope Francis’s appointment of Cardinal Matteo Zuppi as papal peace envoy may have yielded few tangible results, but it solidified the Vatican’s presence in high-level negotiations from Washington to Moscow. That same diplomatic circuitry—built through patient engagement in times of skepticism—appears to be paying off now in the Americas. Parolin’s intimate awareness of U.S. planning in Venezuela suggests that the Holy See is no longer an afterthought but an active node in global intelligence and diplomacy.
The Question of What Comes Next
The immediate challenge now lies with countries like Cuba and Nicaragua. Will they recognize the Vatican’s renewed relevance and use it as a channel for engagement or compromise? And will the Vatican, for its part, leverage its growing diplomatic capital to advocate more openly for persecuted local Churches?
Maria Machado, the opposition candidate seen as the likely winner of Venezuela’s last election, may already have given her answer. She began the week with an audience with Pope Leo—a move widely seen as a savvy prelude to her upcoming talks with former U.S. President Donald Trump. In Latin America’s shifting geopolitical theater, it may signal a new pattern: before Washington, one calls on Rome.
The Vatican’s strength has always been its patience, its reach, and its ability to play the long game where others seek instant victories. But in today’s unpredictable world, where autocrats and superpowers alike search for intermediaries, it may find itself holding more cards than anyone expected.
- Raju Hasmukh with files from The Pillar
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